GMOコイン「暗号資産の購入で毎日10人に1,000円が当たる」の当選率について調べてみた

GMOコインのキャンペーン「暗号資産の購入で毎日10人に1,000円が当たる」の当選率について分析しています。当キャンペーンの当選確率は高いのでおすすめです。本当は自分の当選確率が下がるのであまりアピールしたくないのですが。。。

参考までに!
厳密に計算したわけではないので、数値が間違っているかもしれません。「もとになる取引履歴のデータ」と「分析データの絞り込みと並べ替えたデータ」も掲載しています。

私の当選率

時間帯別の当選率です。

時間帯当選数抽選数当選率
4時010.00%
5時010.00%
6時1911.11%
7時1303.33%
8時0350.00%
9時0160.00%
10時0120.00%
11時1156.67%
12時21513.33%
13時21020.00%
14時050.00%
16時030.00%
17時010.00%
18時010.00%
19時010.00%

キャンペーンの当選者数と取引対象時間 (毎日6:00 ~ 翌5:59)を考慮してみます。1日10人当選なので、144分毎に1人当選するプログラムだと仮定すると、私の当選率は以下のようになります。

開始時間終了時間当選数抽選数当選率
0:00:002:23:0000
2:24:004:47:0010
4:48:007:11:001147.14%
7:12:009:35:000670.00%
9:36:0011:59:001382.63%
12:00:0014:23:0042714.81%
14:24:0016:47:00050.00%
16:48:0019:11:0000
19:12:0021:35:00010.00%
21:36:0023:59:0000

6:00スタートで計算すると以下のようになります。

開始時間終了時間当選数抽選数当選率
6:00:008:23:0021612.50%
8:24:0010:47:000360.00%
10:48:0013:11:003358.57%
13:12:0015:35:0021513.33%
15:36:0017:59:00040.00%
18:00:0020:23:0000
20:24:0022:47:0000
22:48:001:11:0000
1:12:003:35:0000
3:36:005:59:0000

分析データの絞り込みと並べ替え

もとのデータのうち「約定レート」「約定代金」は抽選には関係ないとして、「銘柄名」「約定数量」ですが、BTC一本かつ毎日0.0001BTCの購入でこの当選数なので除外しました。残るは売買時のみとなり、これを時間順に並べ替えてみます。

売買日売買時当選
2020/02/284:24:52×
2020/03/135:26:27×
2020/01/266:01:50×
2020/04/036:02:46×
2020/03/206:12:48×
2020/05/036:18:23×
2020/03/236:27:38×
2020/04/056:32:44×
2020/01/096:39:59×
2020/05/096:41:55×
2020/04/066:56:19
2020/05/047:01:03×
2020/01/157:01:25×
2020/03/217:10:08×
2020/04/087:18:51×
2020/03/277:18:54×
2019/12/307:19:19×
2020/03/177:19:23×
2020/01/207:22:16
2020/01/167:23:41×
2019/12/267:25:19×
2019/12/187:25:27×
2020/05/077:27:41×
2020/01/117:29:16×
2019/12/197:31:38×
2020/02/137:33:37×
2019/12/217:36:09×
2020/01/147:38:04×
2020/05/187:38:56×
2019/12/247:39:23×
2020/03/247:42:50×
2019/12/147:43:41×
2020/04/047:45:09×
2020/04/207:47:20×
2020/02/297:48:50×
2020/01/077:49:55×
2019/12/257:50:44×
2020/02/207:50:59×
2020/04/237:56:13×
2019/11/307:58:14×
2020/03/287:58:41×
2020/04/118:00:13×
2020/05/138:01:40×
2020/04/248:02:26×
2019/12/178:02:36×
2020/04/178:03:19×
2020/03/108:03:40×
2020/01/178:05:28×
2020/04/168:06:15×
2020/01/318:10:54×
2020/01/128:10:55×
2019/12/168:11:13×
2019/12/208:11:38×
2020/03/308:13:29×
2020/03/138:14:50×
2020/02/108:14:52×
2020/03/168:15:16×
2020/03/068:15:52×
2020/01/048:16:07×
2020/04/198:16:50×
2020/05/128:18:11×
2020/03/318:22:03×
2020/01/188:23:43×
2020/04/218:27:06×
2020/05/088:28:06×
2020/01/108:32:49×
2019/12/278:33:10×
2020/04/308:39:05×
2020/03/018:42:04×
2020/04/188:44:45×
2020/04/158:49:11×
2020/02/258:50:36×
2020/02/128:51:36×
2020/05/158:56:47×
2020/04/298:57:03×
2020/03/188:58:13×
2020/03/049:07:06×
2020/03/129:08:03×
2020/04/129:19:47×
2020/02/099:25:37×
2020/01/239:33:26×
2020/03/229:38:36×
2020/02/239:40:47×
2020/01/259:43:38×
2020/01/039:44:29×
2020/04/029:44:44×
2020/03/159:49:10×
2020/04/109:50:18×
2020/02/279:53:41×
2020/04/259:53:41×
2020/03/199:55:04×
2020/01/199:57:48×
2020/01/0210:05:02×
2020/02/2810:08:20×
2020/02/1110:14:33×
2020/03/2510:18:42×
2019/12/0110:28:42×
2020/01/3010:31:39×
2020/01/2710:47:02×
2020/01/2110:49:01×
2019/12/2310:50:20×
2020/03/0510:56:22×
2020/02/0110:56:37×
2020/02/0710:58:55×
2020/04/0711:04:11×
2020/03/2611:05:03×
2020/05/0211:05:51×
2020/01/2411:10:04×
2020/05/0111:11:38×
2020/01/1311:12:43×
2020/01/2211:15:11×
2020/01/0511:16:01×
2020/02/2111:16:19×
2020/03/2911:18:33
2020/02/1711:21:14×
2020/02/2611:23:17×
2020/03/0911:24:53×
2019/12/1511:25:31×
2019/12/3111:42:28×
2020/03/0712:00:43
2020/04/2712:05:26×
2020/05/0612:05:58×
2020/04/2612:07:48×
2020/04/2212:08:00×
2020/01/2912:09:57×
2020/04/2812:13:47×
2020/04/0112:14:41×
2020/03/1412:17:37×
2020/01/0112:18:31
2020/03/0312:27:53×
2020/01/0812:35:56×
2020/02/1812:38:42×
2019/12/1312:43:00×
2019/12/2812:47:18×
2020/02/0813:17:41×
2020/05/1713:24:17×
2020/03/0213:27:03×
2020/04/1313:28:45×
2020/03/0813:36:34×
2020/05/1613:40:19
2020/05/0513:45:35×
2020/05/1013:50:34
2020/04/0913:51:43×
2020/03/1113:54:26×
2020/02/0214:19:17×
2020/05/1114:21:10×
2020/02/2214:38:17×
2020/05/1414:40:23×
2020/01/2814:59:12×
2020/02/1916:02:43×
2020/02/1616:27:29×
2020/04/1416:52:59×
2020/02/2417:57:13×
2020/01/0618:33:47×
2019/12/2219:37:42×

もとになる取引履歴のデータ

元になるデータです。BATとXEMを3回購入しているんですが、データに入れ忘れてしまいました。BTCは毎日購入しているので誤差とします。次回分析時に入れるよう注意したいと思います。

売買日売買時銘柄名約定数量約定レート約定代金当選
2020/05/187:38:56BTC0.0001BTC1,057,021円106円×
2020/05/1713:24:17BTC0.0001BTC1,041,560円105円×
2020/05/1613:40:19BTC0.0001BTC1,031,867円104円×
2020/05/158:56:47BTC0.0001BTC1,073,012円108円×
2020/05/1414:40:23BTC0.0001BTC1,019,249円102円×
2020/05/138:01:40BTC0.0001BTC967,301円97円×
2020/05/128:18:11BTC0.0001BTC941,977円95円×
2020/05/1114:21:10BTC0.0001BTC941,750円95円×
2020/05/1013:50:34BTC0.0001BTC927,359円93円
2020/05/096:41:55BTC0.0001BTC1,086,856円109円×
2020/05/088:28:06BTC0.0001BTC1,083,594円109円×
2020/05/077:27:41BTC0.0001BTC1,007,802円101円×
2020/05/0612:05:58BTC0.0001BTC974,616円98円×
2020/05/0513:45:35BTC0.0001BTC973,635円98円×
2020/05/047:01:03BTC0.0001BTC967,510円97円×
2020/05/036:18:23BTC0.0001BTC972,710円98円×
2020/05/0211:05:51BTC0.0001BTC958,141円96円×
2020/05/0111:11:38BTC0.0001BTC951,083円96円×
2020/04/308:39:05BTC0.0001BTC951,524円96円×
2020/04/298:57:03BTC0.0001BTC846,216円85円×
2020/04/2812:13:47BTC0.0001BTC842,324円85円×
2020/04/2712:05:26BTC0.0001BTC850,402円86円×
2020/04/2612:07:48BTC0.0001BTC829,903円83円×
2020/04/259:53:41BTC0.0001BTC818,916円82円×
2020/04/248:02:26BTC0.0001BTC829,724円83円×
2020/04/237:56:13BTC0.0001BTC782,912円79円×
2020/04/2212:08:00BTC0.0001BTC756,607円76円×
2020/04/218:27:06BTC0.0001BTC753,593円76円×
2020/04/207:47:20BTC0.0001BTC789,196円79円×
2020/04/198:16:50BTC0.0001BTC798,244円80円×
2020/04/188:44:45BTC0.0001BTC774,303円78円×
2020/04/178:03:19BTC0.0001BTC788,973円79円×
2020/04/168:06:15BTC0.0001BTC728,419円73円×
2020/04/158:49:11BTC0.0001BTC749,754円75円×
2020/04/1416:52:59BTC0.0001BTC752,102円76円×
2020/04/1313:28:45BTC0.0001BTC739,201円74円×
2020/04/129:19:47BTC0.0001BTC762,696円77円×
2020/04/118:00:13BTC0.0001BTC760,582円77円×
2020/04/109:50:18BTC0.0001BTC806,954円81円×
2020/04/0913:51:43BTC0.0001BTC811,731円82円×
2020/04/087:18:51BTC0.0001BTC795,120円80円×
2020/04/0711:04:11BTC0.0001BTC818,156円82円×
2020/04/066:56:19BTC0.0001BTC749,468円75円
2020/04/056:32:44BTC0.0001BTC761,745円77円×
2020/04/047:45:09BTC0.0001BTC745,240円75円×
2020/04/036:02:46BTC0.0001BTC741,059円75円×
2020/04/029:44:44BTC0.0001BTC725,970円73円×
2020/04/0112:14:41BTC0.0001BTC699,395円70円×
2020/03/318:22:03BTC0.0001BTC714,028円72円×
2020/03/308:13:29BTC0.0001BTC650,179円66円×
2020/03/2911:18:33BTC0.0001BTC687,792円69円
2020/03/287:58:41BTC0.0001BTC735,950円74円×
2020/03/277:18:54BTC0.0001BTC749,400円75円×
2020/03/2611:05:03BTC0.0001BTC757,544円76円×
2020/03/2510:18:42BTC0.0001BTC756,828円76円×
2020/03/247:42:50BTC0.0001BTC726,881円73円×
2020/03/236:27:38BTC0.0001BTC678,975円68円×
2020/03/229:38:36BTC0.0001BTC696,917円70円×
2020/03/217:10:08BTC0.0001BTC711,965円72円×
2020/03/206:12:48BTC0.0001BTC705,371円71円×
2020/03/199:55:04BTC0.0001BTC596,993円60円×
2020/03/188:58:13BTC0.0001BTC587,343円59円×
2020/03/177:19:23BTC0.0001BTC538,710円54円×
2020/03/168:15:16BTC0.0001BTC586,318円59円×
2020/03/159:49:10BTC0.0001BTC575,017円58円×
2020/03/1412:17:37BTC0.0001BTC625,103円63円×
2020/03/138:14:50BTC0.0002BTC592,978円119円×
2020/03/135:26:27BTC0.0001BTC628,526円63円×
2020/03/129:08:03BTC0.0001BTC848,374円85円×
2020/03/1113:54:26BTC0.0001BTC844,390円85円×
2020/03/108:03:40BTC0.0001BTC825,231円83円×
2020/03/0911:24:53BTC0.0001BTC842,778円85円×
2020/03/0813:36:34BTC0.0001BTC941,997円95円×
2020/03/0712:00:43BTC0.0001BTC980,256円99円
2020/03/068:15:52BTC0.0001BTC981,603円99円×
2020/03/0510:56:22BTC0.0001BTC973,167円98円×
2020/03/049:07:06BTC0.0001BTC956,042円96円×
2020/03/0312:27:53BTC0.0001BTC977,563円98円×
2020/03/0213:27:03BTC0.0001BTC952,424円96円×
2020/03/018:42:04BTC0.0001BTC944,965円95円×
2020/02/297:48:50BTC0.0001BTC964,452円97円×
2020/02/2810:08:20BTC0.0001BTC986,368円99円×
2020/02/284:24:52BTC0.0001BTC996,209円100円×
2020/02/279:53:41BTC0.0001BTC975,335円98円×
2020/02/2611:23:17BTC0.0001BTC1,027,495円103円×
2020/02/258:50:36BTC0.0001BTC1,093,458円110円×
2020/02/2417:57:13BTC0.0001BTC1,110,011円112円×
2020/02/239:40:47BTC0.0001BTC1,101,438円111円×
2020/02/2214:38:17BTC0.0001BTC1,096,529円110円×
2020/02/2111:16:19BTC0.0001BTC1,102,515円111円×
2020/02/207:50:59BTC0.0001BTC1,096,594円110円×
2020/02/1916:02:43BTC0.0001BTC1,131,605円114円×
2020/02/1812:38:42BTC0.0001BTC1,088,908円109円×
2020/02/1711:21:14BTC0.0001BTC1,099,231円110円×
2020/02/1616:27:29BTC0.0001BTC1,116,570円112円×
2020/02/137:33:37BTC0.0001BTC1,166,363円117円×
2020/02/128:51:36BTC0.0001BTC1,151,524円116円×
2020/02/1110:14:33BTC0.0001BTC1,093,258円110円×
2020/02/108:14:52BTC0.0001BTC1,136,423円114円×
2020/02/099:25:37BTC0.0001BTC1,110,702円112円×
2020/02/0813:17:41BTC0.0001BTC1,089,056円109円×
2020/02/0710:58:55BTC0.0001BTC1,097,385円110円×
2020/02/0214:19:17BTC0.0001BTC1,027,900円103円×
2020/02/0110:56:37BTC0.0001BTC1,039,680円104円×
2020/01/318:10:54BTC0.0001BTC1,058,159円106円×
2020/01/3010:31:39BTC0.0001BTC1,027,833円103円×
2020/01/2912:09:57BTC0.0001BTC1,039,412円104円×
2020/01/2814:59:12BTC0.0001BTC1,006,338円101円×
2020/01/2710:47:02BTC0.0001BTC961,981円97円×
2020/01/266:01:50BTC0.0001BTC932,070円94円×
2020/01/259:43:38BTC0.0001BTC930,727円94円×
2020/01/2411:10:04BTC0.0001BTC930,043円94円×
2020/01/239:33:26BTC0.0001BTC964,272円97円×
2020/01/2211:15:11BTC0.0001BTC977,136円98円×
2020/01/2110:49:01BTC0.0001BTC968,123円97円×
2020/01/207:22:16BTC0.0001BTC965,364円97円
2020/01/199:57:48BTC0.0001BTC1,008,086円101円×
2020/01/188:23:43BTC0.0001BTC1,002,617円101円×
2020/01/178:05:28BTC0.0001BTC980,578円99円×
2020/01/167:23:41BTC0.0001BTC989,543円99円×
2020/01/157:01:25BTC0.0001BTC980,117円99円×
2020/01/147:38:04BTC0.0001BTC910,506円92円×
2020/01/1311:12:43BTC0.0001BTC909,736円91円×
2020/01/128:10:55BTC0.0001BTC897,531円90円×
2020/01/117:29:16BTC0.0001BTC896,700円90円×
2020/01/108:32:49BTC0.0001BTC873,855円88円×
2020/01/096:39:59BTC0.0001BTC888,137円89円×
2020/01/0812:35:56BTC0.0001BTC917,139円92円×
2020/01/077:49:55BTC0.0001BTC855,459円86円×
2020/01/0618:33:47BTC0.0001BTC827,564円83円×
2020/01/0511:16:01BTC0.0001BTC820,557円83円×
2020/01/048:16:07BTC0.0001BTC804,356円81円×
2020/01/039:44:29BTC0.0001BTC766,365円77円×
2020/01/0210:05:02BTC0.0001BTC796,421円80円×
2020/01/0112:18:31BTC0.0001BTC798,863円80円
2019/12/3111:42:28BTC0.0001BTC798,604円80円×
2019/12/307:19:19BTC0.0001BTC827,191円83円×
2019/12/2812:47:18BTC0.0001BTC813,048円82円×
2019/12/278:33:10BTC0.0001BTC804,702円81円×
2019/12/267:25:19BTC0.0001BTC802,308円81円×
2019/12/257:50:44BTC0.0001BTC806,498円81円×
2019/12/247:39:23BTC0.0001BTC812,956円82円×
2019/12/2310:50:20BTC0.0001BTC848,535円85円×
2019/12/2219:37:42BTC0.0001BTC802,131円81円×
2019/12/217:36:09BTC0.0001BTC802,329円81円×
2019/12/208:11:38BTC0.0001BTC797,838円80円×
2019/12/197:31:38BTC0.0001BTC800,211円81円×
2019/12/187:25:27BTC0.0001BTC745,591円75円×
2019/12/178:02:36BTC0.0001BTC768,642円77円×
2019/12/168:11:13BTC0.0001BTC793,203円80円×
2019/12/1511:25:31BTC0.0001BTC788,210円79円×
2019/12/147:43:41BTC0.0001BTC806,230円81円×
2019/12/1312:43:00BTC0.0001BTC807,084円81円×
2019/12/0110:28:42BTC0.0001BTC827,105円83円×
2019/11/307:58:14BTC0.0001BTC863,134円87円×